Single · moneyline
Sharpest call · Cameron Norrie
To win
+$61.20
Total payout
$81.20
Joint prob
40.5%
Combined odds
4.06
Fair odds
2.47
Edge
+64.3%
Expected value: +$12.85 on a $20 stake.
Expected value: +$12.85 on a $20 stake.
Market: Pinnacle ·
Quarter-Kelly (25%) is the common safe default. Full Kelly is mathematically optimal but volatile.
Model probability: 40.5% · fair market: 24.0% · edge: +68.8%
Model probabilities Alexander Zverev 59.5% · Cameron Norrie 40.5% Why Alexander Zverev is favoured Alexander Zverev's Elo (1878) is +239 over Cameron Norrie (1639); high confidence. Calibration Raw model: 86.8% home · Platt-calibrated down to 59.5% based on historical reliability across this sport's graded matches. +EV vs market away: model 40.5% vs market 24.0% (edge +68.8%, suggested Kelly +21.0% of bankroll).
No-vig implied probabilities from recorded snapshots. Line moving toward one side means the market is re-pricing in that team's favour — compare to the model to see who's ahead.