Single · moneyline
Sharpest call · Luciano Darderi
To win
+$22.40
Total payout
$42.40
Joint prob
56.1%
Combined odds
2.12
Fair odds
1.78
Edge
+19.0%
Expected value: +$3.79 on a $20 stake.
Expected value: +$3.79 on a $20 stake.
Market: Betfair ·
Quarter-Kelly (25%) is the common safe default. Full Kelly is mathematically optimal but volatile.
Model probability: 56.1% · fair market: 45.6% · edge: +23.0%
Model probabilities Luciano Darderi 56.1% · Rinky Hijikata 43.9% Why Luciano Darderi is favoured Luciano Darderi's Elo (1535) is +26 over Rinky Hijikata (1509); high confidence. Calibration Raw model: 57.9% home · Platt-calibrated down to 56.1% based on historical reliability across this sport's graded matches. +EV vs market home: model 56.1% vs market 45.6% (edge +23.0%, suggested Kelly +16.9% of bankroll).
No-vig implied probabilities from recorded snapshots. Line moving toward one side means the market is re-pricing in that team's favour — compare to the model to see who's ahead.