Single · moneyline
Sharpest call · Sho Shimabukuro
To win
+$52.60
Total payout
$72.60
Joint prob
27.6%
Combined odds
3.63
Fair odds
3.62
Edge
+0.3%
Expected value: +$0.07 on a $20 stake.
Expected value: +$0.07 on a $20 stake.
Market: Pinnacle ·
Quarter-Kelly (25%) is the common safe default. Full Kelly is mathematically optimal but volatile.
Model probability: 27.6% · fair market: 26.8% · edge: +3.1%
Model probabilities Denis Shapovalov 72.4% · Sho Shimabukuro 27.6% Why Denis Shapovalov is favoured Denis Shapovalov's Elo (1596) is +149 over Sho Shimabukuro (1447); high confidence. Calibration Raw model: 79.7% home · Platt-calibrated down to 72.4% based on historical reliability across this sport's graded matches. +EV vs market away: model 27.6% vs market 26.8% (edge +3.1%, suggested Kelly +0.1% of bankroll).