Single · moneyline
Sharpest call · Arthur Rinderknech
To win
+$36.40
Total payout
$56.40
Joint prob
46.1%
Combined odds
2.82
Fair odds
2.17
Edge
+30.1%
Expected value: +$6.01 on a $20 stake.
Expected value: +$6.01 on a $20 stake.
Market: Pinnacle ·
Quarter-Kelly (25%) is the common safe default. Full Kelly is mathematically optimal but volatile.
Model probability: 46.1% · fair market: 34.6% · edge: +33.4%
Arthur Rinderknech has advanced to the Round of 16 at the Canadian Open, benefiting from Frances Tiafoe's retirement in the previous round. His overall 2026 record stands at 16-18, with a 5-6 record on hard courts.
Lineup: Expected to start in the Round of 16 match against Brandon Nakashima.
Brandon Nakashima enters the Canadian Open Round of 16 with a strong 24-15 win-loss record in 2026, including 14-7 on hard courts. He has progressed through the tournament by defeating Daniel Altmaier and Titouan Droguet.
Lineup: Expected to start in the Round of 16 match against Arthur Rinderknech.
“Nakashima and Rinderknech set for Canadian Open Round of 16 clash, with Nakashima showing strong recent form.”
Model probabilities Arthur Rinderknech 46.1% · Brandon Nakashima 53.9% Why Brandon Nakashima is favoured Elo essentially level (1630 vs 1639) — winner depends on context. +EV vs market home: model 46.1% vs market 34.6% (edge +33.4%, suggested Kelly +16.5% of bankroll). News context Nakashima and Rinderknech set for Canadian Open Round of 16 clash, with Nakashima showing strong recent form. Arthur Rinderknech: Arthur Rinderknech has advanced to the Round of 16 at the Canadian Open, benefiting from Frances Tiafoe's retirement in the previous round. His overall 2026 record stands at 16-18, with a 5-6 record on hard courts. Brandon Nakashima: Brandon Nakashima enters the Canadian Open Round of 16 with a strong 24-15 win-loss record in 2026, including 14-7 on hard courts. He has progressed through the tournament by defeating Daniel Altmaier and Titouan Droguet.
No-vig implied probabilities from recorded snapshots. Line moving toward one side means the market is re-pricing in that team's favour — compare to the model to see who's ahead.