Single · moneyline
Sharpest call · Thanasi Kokkinakis
To win
+$127.00
Total payout
$147.00
Joint prob
50.9%
Combined odds
7.35
Fair odds
1.97
Edge
+274.0%
Expected value: +$54.80 on a $20 stake.
Expected value: +$54.80 on a $20 stake.
Market: Pinnacle ·
Quarter-Kelly (25%) is the common safe default. Full Kelly is mathematically optimal but volatile.
Model probability: 50.9% · fair market: 13.1% · edge: +287.8%
Model probabilities Rafael Jodar 49.1% · Thanasi Kokkinakis 50.9% Why Thanasi Kokkinakis is favoured Rafael Jodar's Elo (1627) is +33 over Thanasi Kokkinakis (1593); medium confidence. Calibration Raw model: 59.8% home · Platt-calibrated down to 49.1% based on historical reliability across this sport's graded matches. +EV vs market away: model 50.9% vs market 13.1% (edge +287.8%, suggested Kelly +25.0% of bankroll). Confidence note Elo data on these teams is thin (40% sample-size confidence); headline number is sharper than the underlying signal — treat it as directional, not absolute.
No-vig implied probabilities from recorded snapshots. Line moving toward one side means the market is re-pricing in that team's favour — compare to the model to see who's ahead.