Single · moneyline
Sharpest call · Fabian Marozsan
To win
+$24.80
Total payout
$44.80
Joint prob
47.8%
Combined odds
2.24
Fair odds
2.09
Edge
+7.1%
Expected value: +$1.43 on a $20 stake.
Expected value: +$1.43 on a $20 stake.
Market: Pinnacle ·
Quarter-Kelly (25%) is the common safe default. Full Kelly is mathematically optimal but volatile.
Model probability: 47.8% · fair market: 43.1% · edge: +10.8%
Model probabilities Fabian Marozsan 47.8% · Michael Zheng 52.2% Calibration Raw model: 70.3% home · Platt-calibrated down to 47.8% based on historical reliability across this sport's graded matches. +EV vs market home: model 47.8% vs market 43.1% (edge +10.8%, suggested Kelly +5.7% of bankroll).