Single · moneyline
Sharpest call · Alex de Minaur
To win
+$4.80
Total payout
$24.80
Joint prob
83.1%
Combined odds
1.24
Fair odds
1.20
Edge
+3.0%
Expected value: +$0.60 on a $20 stake.
Expected value: +$0.60 on a $20 stake.
Market: Pinnacle ·
Quarter-Kelly (25%) is the common safe default. Full Kelly is mathematically optimal but volatile.
Model probability: 83.1% · fair market: 78.5% · edge: +5.7%
Model probabilities Alex de Minaur 83.1% · Mariano Navone 16.9% Why Alex de Minaur is favoured Alex de Minaur's Elo (1752) is +292 over Mariano Navone (1460); high confidence. Calibration Raw model: 89.8% home · Platt-calibrated down to 83.1% based on historical reliability across this sport's graded matches. +EV vs market home: model 83.1% vs market 78.5% (edge +5.7%, suggested Kelly +12.4% of bankroll).