Single · moneyline
Sharpest call · Learner Tien
To win
+$10.20
Total payout
$30.20
Joint prob
77.8%
Combined odds
1.51
Fair odds
1.29
Edge
+17.4%
Expected value: +$3.49 on a $20 stake.
Expected value: +$3.49 on a $20 stake.
Market: Pinnacle ·
Quarter-Kelly (25%) is the common safe default. Full Kelly is mathematically optimal but volatile.
Model probability: 77.8% · fair market: 64.6% · edge: +20.3%
Model probabilities Daniel Merida Aguilar 22.2% · Learner Tien 77.8% Why Learner Tien is favoured Learner Tien's Elo (1765) is +198 over Daniel Merida Aguilar (1567); low confidence. But — counter-arguments Elo confidence is low (15%) — ratings are based on a thin sample, so the prediction itself is wider than the headline number suggests. Calibration Raw model: 16.0% home · Platt-calibrated up to 22.2% based on historical reliability across this sport's graded matches. +EV vs market away: model 77.8% vs market 64.6% (edge +20.3%, suggested Kelly +25.0% of bankroll). Confidence note Elo data on these teams is thin (15% sample-size confidence); headline number is sharper than the underlying signal — treat it as directional, not absolute.
No-vig implied probabilities from recorded snapshots. Line moving toward one side means the market is re-pricing in that team's favour — compare to the model to see who's ahead.