Single · moneyline
Sharpest call · Nicolas Mejia
To win
+$60.20
Total payout
$80.20
Joint prob
31.4%
Combined odds
4.01
Fair odds
3.19
Edge
+25.8%
Expected value: +$5.16 on a $20 stake.
A recent controversy involving umpire Greg Allensworth, who officiated a match involving Nicolas Mejia at the Canadian Open on August 6, 2026, could influence a sharp bettor's view of this match. Fans criticized Allensworth for a 'double bounce controversy' and questioned his competence. No other material integrity, morale, or squad-news flags were found for either player within the last 14 days.
Umpire Greg Allensworth was involved in a 'double bounce controversy' during Nicolas Mejia's match against Lorenzo Musetti at the Canadian Open, drawing significant criticism from fans for a 'miserably bad' call.
Expected value: +$5.16 on a $20 stake.
Market: Pinnacle ·
Quarter-Kelly (25%) is the common safe default. Full Kelly is mathematically optimal but volatile.
Model probability: 31.4% · fair market: 23.9% · edge: +31.2%
Model probabilities Nicolas Mejia 31.4% · Jacob Fearnley 68.6% Why Jacob Fearnley is favoured Jacob Fearnley's Elo (1461) is +56 over Nicolas Mejia (1405); high confidence. Calibration Raw model: 34.5% home · Platt-calibrated down to 31.4% based on historical reliability across this sport's graded matches. +EV vs market home: model 31.4% vs market 23.9% (edge +31.2%, suggested Kelly +8.6% of bankroll).
No-vig implied probabilities from recorded snapshots. Line moving toward one side means the market is re-pricing in that team's favour — compare to the model to see who's ahead.