Single · moneyline
Sharpest call · Cameron Norrie
To win
+$9.80
Total payout
$29.80
Joint prob
76.1%
Combined odds
1.49
Fair odds
1.31
Edge
+13.4%
Expected value: +$2.69 on a $20 stake.
Expected value: +$2.69 on a $20 stake.
Market: Pinnacle ·
Quarter-Kelly (25%) is the common safe default. Full Kelly is mathematically optimal but volatile.
Model probability: 76.1% · fair market: 64.9% · edge: +17.2%
Model probabilities Ignacio Buse 23.9% · Cameron Norrie 76.1% Why Cameron Norrie is favoured Cameron Norrie's Elo (1616) is +118 over Ignacio Buse (1498); high confidence. +EV vs market away: model 76.1% vs market 64.9% (edge +17.2%, suggested Kelly +25.0% of bankroll).
No-vig implied probabilities from recorded snapshots. Line moving toward one side means the market is re-pricing in that team's favour — compare to the model to see who's ahead.