Single · moneyline
Sharpest call · Francisco Cerundolo
To win
+$22.00
Total payout
$42.00
Joint prob
71.5%
Combined odds
2.10
Fair odds
1.40
Edge
+50.1%
Expected value: +$10.03 on a $20 stake.
No integrity flags or significant morale events were reported for Nuno Borges or Francisco Cerundolo within the last 14 days. Both players are confirmed to be active in the ATP Cincinnati Open, with recent match play indicating their current form. Francisco Cerundolo experienced a loss in the Montreal Masters on August 6, 2026, characterized by a high number of unforced errors, while Nuno Borges recorded a win in Cincinnati on August 14, 2026, and several wins in Montreal earlier in August.
Nuno Borges is expected to play, having recently competed and won a match in the ATP Cincinnati Open on August 14, 2026. He also secured multiple wins in the Montreal Masters earlier in August, indicating active participation and recent competitive form.
Francisco Cerundolo is expected to play in the ATP Cincinnati Open. His most recent reported match was a loss in the round of 64 at the Montreal Masters on August 6, 2026, where he committed 31 unforced errors. He also lost in the quarterfinal of the Mifel Tennis Open on July 31, 2026, with 60 unforced errors.
Expected value: +$10.03 on a $20 stake.
Market: Pinnacle ·
Quarter-Kelly (25%) is the common safe default. Full Kelly is mathematically optimal but volatile.
Model probability: 71.5% · fair market: 46.3% · edge: +54.4%
Model probabilities Nuno Borges 28.5% · Francisco Cerundolo 71.5% Why Francisco Cerundolo is favoured Francisco Cerundolo's Elo (1685) is +88 over Nuno Borges (1597); high confidence. +EV vs market away: model 71.5% vs market 46.3% (edge +54.4%, suggested Kelly +25.0% of bankroll).
No-vig implied probabilities from recorded snapshots. Line moving toward one side means the market is re-pricing in that team's favour — compare to the model to see who's ahead.