Single · moneyline
Sharpest call · Casper Ruud
To win
+$2.00
Total payout
$22.00
Joint prob
78.4%
Combined odds
1.10
Fair odds
1.28
Edge
-13.8%
Expected value: $-2.76 on a $20 stake.
Expected value: $-2.76 on a $20 stake.
Market: Betfair ·
Quarter-Kelly (25%) is the common safe default. Full Kelly is mathematically optimal but volatile.
Model probability: 78.4% · fair market: 50.0% · edge: +56.7%
Model probabilities Casper Ruud 78.4% · Juan Manuel Cerundolo 21.6% Why Casper Ruud is favoured Casper Ruud's Elo (1667) is +136 over Juan Manuel Cerundolo (1531); high confidence. +EV vs market home: model 78.4% vs market 50.0% (edge +56.7%, suggested Kelly +0.0% of bankroll).
No-vig implied probabilities from recorded snapshots. Line moving toward one side means the market is re-pricing in that team's favour — compare to the model to see who's ahead.