Market: Pinnacle ·
Quarter-Kelly (25%) is the common safe default. Full Kelly is mathematically optimal but volatile.
Model probability: 19.5% · fair market: 20.5% · edge: -4.7%
Model probabilities Emma Navarro 19.5% · Jessica Pegula 80.5% Why Jessica Pegula is favoured Jessica Pegula's Elo (1907) is +320 over Emma Navarro (1586); high confidence. Calibration Raw model: 8.9% home · Platt-calibrated up to 19.5% based on historical reliability across this sport's graded matches. Market check No +EV edge — book has the price right at these odds.
No-vig implied probabilities from recorded snapshots. Line moving toward one side means the market is re-pricing in that team's favour — compare to the model to see who's ahead.