Single · moneyline
Sharpest call · Gael Monfils
To win
+$55.00
Total payout
$75.00
Joint prob
43.4%
Combined odds
3.75
Fair odds
2.31
Edge
+62.6%
Expected value: +$12.53 on a $20 stake.
Expected value: +$12.53 on a $20 stake.
Market: Pinnacle ·
Quarter-Kelly (25%) is the common safe default. Full Kelly is mathematically optimal but volatile.
Model probability: 43.4% · fair market: 25.9% · edge: +67.5%
Model probabilities Kamil Majchrzak 56.6% · Gael Monfils 43.4% Why Kamil Majchrzak is favoured Kamil Majchrzak's Elo (1594) is +22 over Gael Monfils (1572); high confidence. +EV vs market away: model 43.4% vs market 25.9% (edge +67.5%, suggested Kelly +22.8% of bankroll).
No-vig implied probabilities from recorded snapshots. Line moving toward one side means the market is re-pricing in that team's favour — compare to the model to see who's ahead.