Single · moneyline
Sharpest call · Cadence Brace
To win
+$102.20
Total payout
$122.20
Joint prob
22.8%
Combined odds
6.11
Fair odds
4.38
Edge
+39.5%
Expected value: +$7.91 on a $20 stake.
Expected value: +$7.91 on a $20 stake.
Market: Pinnacle ·
Quarter-Kelly (25%) is the common safe default. Full Kelly is mathematically optimal but volatile.
Model probability: 22.8% · fair market: 15.8% · edge: +44.2%
Model probabilities McCartney Kessler 77.2% · Cadence Brace 22.8% Why McCartney Kessler is favoured McCartney Kessler's Elo (1612) is +126 over Cadence Brace (1486); low confidence. But — counter-arguments Elo confidence is low (15%) — ratings are based on a thin sample, so the prediction itself is wider than the headline number suggests. +EV vs market away: model 22.8% vs market 15.8% (edge +44.2%, suggested Kelly +7.7% of bankroll). Confidence note Elo data on these teams is thin (15% sample-size confidence); headline number is sharper than the underlying signal — treat it as directional, not absolute.
No-vig implied probabilities from recorded snapshots. Line moving toward one side means the market is re-pricing in that team's favour — compare to the model to see who's ahead.