Single · moneyline
Sharpest call · Viktorija Golubic
To win
+$20.80
Total payout
$40.80
Joint prob
43.1%
Combined odds
2.04
Fair odds
2.32
Edge
-12.2%
Expected value: $-2.43 on a $20 stake.
Expected value: $-2.43 on a $20 stake.
Market: Betfair ·
Quarter-Kelly (25%) is the common safe default. Full Kelly is mathematically optimal but volatile.
Model probability: 43.1% · fair market: 41.0% · edge: +4.9%
Model probabilities Viktorija Golubic 43.1% · Peyton Stearns 56.9% Why Peyton Stearns is favoured Peyton Stearns's Elo (1572) is +18 over Viktorija Golubic (1554); high confidence. Calibration Raw model: 44.5% home · Platt-calibrated down to 43.1% based on historical reliability across this sport's graded matches. +EV vs market home: model 43.1% vs market 41.0% (edge +4.9%, suggested Kelly +0.0% of bankroll).
No-vig implied probabilities from recorded snapshots. Line moving toward one side means the market is re-pricing in that team's favour — compare to the model to see who's ahead.