Single · moneyline
Sharpest call · Tallon Griekspoor
To win
+$30.20
Total payout
$50.20
Joint prob
50.2%
Combined odds
2.51
Fair odds
1.99
Edge
+25.9%
Expected value: +$5.18 on a $20 stake.
Expected value: +$5.18 on a $20 stake.
Market: Pinnacle ·
Quarter-Kelly (25%) is the common safe default. Full Kelly is mathematically optimal but volatile.
Model probability: 50.2% · fair market: 38.6% · edge: +29.8%
Model probabilities Tallon Griekspoor 50.2% · Andrey Rublev 49.8% Why Tallon Griekspoor is favoured Tallon Griekspoor's Elo (1636) is +12 over Andrey Rublev (1624); high confidence. Calibration Raw model: 53.6% home · Platt-calibrated down to 50.2% based on historical reliability across this sport's graded matches. +EV vs market home: model 50.2% vs market 38.6% (edge +29.8%, suggested Kelly +17.1% of bankroll).