Single · moneyline
Sharpest call · Harriet Dart
To win
+$26.20
Total payout
$46.20
Joint prob
43.8%
Combined odds
2.31
Fair odds
2.28
Edge
+1.2%
Expected value: +$0.24 on a $20 stake.
Expected value: +$0.24 on a $20 stake.
Market: Pinnacle ·
Quarter-Kelly (25%) is the common safe default. Full Kelly is mathematically optimal but volatile.
Model probability: 43.8% · fair market: 41.5% · edge: +5.5%
Model probabilities Harriet Dart 43.8% · Moyuka Uchijima 56.2% Why Moyuka Uchijima is favoured Harriet Dart's Elo (1437) is +44 over Moyuka Uchijima (1393); high confidence. Calibration Raw model: 62.5% home · Platt-calibrated down to 43.8% based on historical reliability across this sport's graded matches. +EV vs market home: model 43.8% vs market 41.5% (edge +5.5%, suggested Kelly +0.9% of bankroll).