Single · moneyline
Sharpest call · Arthur Fils
To win
+$0.80
Total payout
$20.80
Joint prob
91.4%
Combined odds
1.04
Fair odds
1.09
Edge
-5.0%
Expected value: $-0.99 on a $20 stake.
Expected value: $-0.99 on a $20 stake.
Market: Betfair ·
Quarter-Kelly (25%) is the common safe default. Full Kelly is mathematically optimal but volatile.
Model probability: 91.4% · fair market: 69.9% · edge: +30.7%
Model probabilities Mariano Navone 8.6% · Arthur Fils 91.4% Why Arthur Fils is favoured Arthur Fils's Elo (1781) is +327 over Mariano Navone (1454); high confidence. +EV vs market away: model 91.4% vs market 69.9% (edge +30.7%, suggested Kelly +0.0% of bankroll).
No-vig implied probabilities from recorded snapshots. Line moving toward one side means the market is re-pricing in that team's favour — compare to the model to see who's ahead.