Single · moneyline
Sharpest call · Anna Kalinskaya
To win
+$30.20
Total payout
$50.20
Joint prob
46.2%
Combined odds
2.51
Fair odds
2.16
Edge
+16.0%
Expected value: +$3.20 on a $20 stake.
Expected value: +$3.20 on a $20 stake.
Market: Pinnacle ·
Quarter-Kelly (25%) is the common safe default. Full Kelly is mathematically optimal but volatile.
Model probability: 46.2% · fair market: 38.6% · edge: +19.6%
Model probabilities Qinwen Zheng 53.8% · Anna Kalinskaya 46.2% Why Qinwen Zheng is favoured Qinwen Zheng's Elo (1749) is +28 over Anna Kalinskaya (1721); high confidence. Calibration Raw model: 58.2% home · Platt-calibrated down to 53.8% based on historical reliability across this sport's graded matches. +EV vs market away: model 46.2% vs market 38.6% (edge +19.6%, suggested Kelly +10.6% of bankroll).
No-vig implied probabilities from recorded snapshots. Line moving toward one side means the market is re-pricing in that team's favour — compare to the model to see who's ahead.