Single · moneyline
Sharpest call · Valentin Vacherot
To win
+$16.20
Total payout
$36.20
Joint prob
55.7%
Combined odds
1.81
Fair odds
1.79
Edge
+0.9%
Expected value: +$0.17 on a $20 stake.
Expected value: +$0.17 on a $20 stake.
Market: Pinnacle ·
Quarter-Kelly (25%) is the common safe default. Full Kelly is mathematically optimal but volatile.
Model probability: 55.7% · fair market: 53.9% · edge: +3.3%
Model probabilities Valentin Vacherot 55.7% · Kamil Majchrzak 44.3% Why Valentin Vacherot is favoured Valentin Vacherot's Elo (1644) is +86 over Kamil Majchrzak (1557); high confidence. Calibration Raw model: 71.5% home · Platt-calibrated down to 55.7% based on historical reliability across this sport's graded matches. +EV vs market home: model 55.7% vs market 53.9% (edge +3.3%, suggested Kelly +1.1% of bankroll).