Single · moneyline
Sharpest call · Ben Shelton
To win
+$15.40
Total payout
$35.40
Joint prob
63.9%
Combined odds
1.77
Fair odds
1.57
Edge
+13.0%
Expected value: +$2.61 on a $20 stake.
Minor morale events have been reported for both players in the last 14 days. Ben Shelton received criticism for a 'Finger to the Ear' celebration at the Canadian Open, and Jakub Mensik's match was briefly interrupted by a heckling fan, which the umpire addressed. No integrity flags, new injuries, or significant lineup changes were found for either player.
Ben Shelton was criticized by a tennis insider for a 'Finger to the Ear' celebration at the Canadian Open.
During Jakub Mensik's match at the Canadian Open, the chair umpire intervened to warn a heckling fan who was disrupting play.
Expected value: +$2.61 on a $20 stake.
Market: Pinnacle ·
Quarter-Kelly (25%) is the common safe default. Full Kelly is mathematically optimal but volatile.
Model probability: 63.9% · fair market: 55.2% · edge: +15.7%
Model probabilities Jakub Mensik 36.1% · Ben Shelton 63.9% Why Ben Shelton is favoured Ben Shelton's Elo (1757) is +15 over Jakub Mensik (1742); high confidence. Calibration Raw model: 45.5% home · Platt-calibrated down to 36.1% based on historical reliability across this sport's graded matches. +EV vs market away: model 63.9% vs market 55.2% (edge +15.7%, suggested Kelly +16.9% of bankroll).
No-vig implied probabilities from recorded snapshots. Line moving toward one side means the market is re-pricing in that team's favour — compare to the model to see who's ahead.