Single · moneyline
Sharpest call · Lin Zhu
To win
+$29.60
Total payout
$49.60
Joint prob
58.9%
Combined odds
2.48
Fair odds
1.70
Edge
+46.1%
Expected value: +$9.23 on a $20 stake.
Expected value: +$9.23 on a $20 stake.
Market: Pinnacle ·
Quarter-Kelly (25%) is the common safe default. Full Kelly is mathematically optimal but volatile.
Model probability: 58.9% · fair market: 38.9% · edge: +51.4%
Model probabilities Donna Vekic 41.1% · Lin Zhu 58.9% Why Lin Zhu is favoured Lin Zhu's Elo (1540) is +27 over Donna Vekic (1513); high confidence. +EV vs market away: model 58.9% vs market 38.9% (edge +51.4%, suggested Kelly +25.0% of bankroll).
No-vig implied probabilities from recorded snapshots. Line moving toward one side means the market is re-pricing in that team's favour — compare to the model to see who's ahead.