Single · moneyline
Sharpest call · Martin Landaluce
To win
+$8.00
Total payout
$28.00
Joint prob
77.6%
Combined odds
1.40
Fair odds
1.29
Edge
+8.7%
Expected value: +$1.74 on a $20 stake.
Expected value: +$1.74 on a $20 stake.
Market: Pinnacle ·
Quarter-Kelly (25%) is the common safe default. Full Kelly is mathematically optimal but volatile.
Model probability: 77.6% · fair market: 69.4% · edge: +11.8%
Model probabilities Nicolas Mejia 22.4% · Martin Landaluce 77.6% Why Martin Landaluce is favoured Martin Landaluce's Elo (1535) is +130 over Nicolas Mejia (1405); high confidence. +EV vs market away: model 77.6% vs market 69.4% (edge +11.8%, suggested Kelly +21.8% of bankroll).
No-vig implied probabilities from recorded snapshots. Line moving toward one side means the market is re-pricing in that team's favour — compare to the model to see who's ahead.