Single · moneyline
Sharpest call · Toby Samuel
To win
+$13.00
Total payout
$33.00
Joint prob
61.9%
Combined odds
1.65
Fair odds
1.62
Edge
+2.1%
Expected value: +$0.43 on a $20 stake.
Expected value: +$0.43 on a $20 stake.
Market: Pinnacle ·
Quarter-Kelly (25%) is the common safe default. Full Kelly is mathematically optimal but volatile.
Model probability: 61.9% · fair market: 58.1% · edge: +6.5%
Model probabilities JJ Wolf 38.1% · Toby Samuel 61.9% Why Toby Samuel is favoured Elo essentially level (1500 vs 1500) — winner depends on context. But — counter-arguments Elo confidence is low (30%) — ratings are based on a thin sample, so the prediction itself is wider than the headline number suggests. Calibration Raw model: 50.0% home · Platt-calibrated down to 38.1% based on historical reliability across this sport's graded matches. +EV vs market away: model 61.9% vs market 58.1% (edge +6.5%, suggested Kelly +3.3% of bankroll). Confidence note Elo data on these teams is thin (30% sample-size confidence); headline number is sharper than the underlying signal — treat it as directional, not absolute.