Single · moneyline
Sharpest call · Ugo Humbert
To win
+$20.80
Total payout
$40.80
Joint prob
72.0%
Combined odds
2.04
Fair odds
1.39
Edge
+46.8%
Expected value: +$9.37 on a $20 stake.
Expected value: +$9.37 on a $20 stake.
Market: Pinnacle ·
Quarter-Kelly (25%) is the common safe default. Full Kelly is mathematically optimal but volatile.
Model probability: 72.0% · fair market: 47.6% · edge: +51.3%
Model probabilities Arthur Gea 28.0% · Ugo Humbert 72.0% Why Ugo Humbert is favoured Ugo Humbert's Elo (1657) is +120 over Arthur Gea (1537); low confidence. But — counter-arguments Elo confidence is low (20%) — ratings are based on a thin sample, so the prediction itself is wider than the headline number suggests. Calibration Raw model: 23.6% home · Platt-calibrated up to 28.0% based on historical reliability across this sport's graded matches. +EV vs market away: model 72.0% vs market 47.6% (edge +51.3%, suggested Kelly +25.0% of bankroll). Confidence note Elo data on these teams is thin (20% sample-size confidence); headline number is sharper than the underlying signal — treat it as directional, not absolute.
No-vig implied probabilities from recorded snapshots. Line moving toward one side means the market is re-pricing in that team's favour — compare to the model to see who's ahead.