Single · moneyline
Sharpest call · Tommy Paul
To win
+$12.00
Total payout
$32.00
Joint prob
64.0%
Combined odds
1.60
Fair odds
1.56
Edge
+2.4%
Expected value: +$0.48 on a $20 stake.
Expected value: +$0.48 on a $20 stake.
Market: Pinnacle ·
Quarter-Kelly (25%) is the common safe default. Full Kelly is mathematically optimal but volatile.
Model probability: 64.0% · fair market: 61.0% · edge: +5.0%
Model probabilities Alexander Bublik 36.0% · Tommy Paul 64.0% Why Tommy Paul is favoured Tommy Paul's Elo (1749) is +59 over Alexander Bublik (1690); high confidence. Calibration Raw model: 33.9% home · Platt-calibrated up to 36.0% based on historical reliability across this sport's graded matches. +EV vs market away: model 64.0% vs market 61.0% (edge +5.0%, suggested Kelly +4.0% of bankroll).
No-vig implied probabilities from recorded snapshots. Line moving toward one side means the market is re-pricing in that team's favour — compare to the model to see who's ahead.