Single · moneyline
Sharpest call · Thiago Agustin Tirante
To win
+$22.00
Total payout
$42.00
Joint prob
54.8%
Combined odds
2.10
Fair odds
1.83
Edge
+15.0%
Expected value: +$3.00 on a $20 stake.
Expected value: +$3.00 on a $20 stake.
Market: Pinnacle ·
Quarter-Kelly (25%) is the common safe default. Full Kelly is mathematically optimal but volatile.
Model probability: 54.8% · fair market: 46.3% · edge: +18.3%
Model probabilities Alexei Popyrin 45.2% · Thiago Agustin Tirante 54.8% Why Thiago Agustin Tirante is favoured Thiago Agustin Tirante's Elo (1560) is +16 over Alexei Popyrin (1544); high confidence. +EV vs market away: model 54.8% vs market 46.3% (edge +18.3%, suggested Kelly +13.6% of bankroll).
No-vig implied probabilities from recorded snapshots. Line moving toward one side means the market is re-pricing in that team's favour — compare to the model to see who's ahead.