Single · moneyline
Sharpest call · Sorana Cirstea
To win
+$18.00
Total payout
$38.00
Joint prob
53.9%
Combined odds
1.90
Fair odds
1.86
Edge
+2.3%
Expected value: +$0.46 on a $20 stake.
Expected value: +$0.46 on a $20 stake.
Market: Pinnacle ·
Quarter-Kelly (25%) is the common safe default. Full Kelly is mathematically optimal but volatile.
Model probability: 53.9% · fair market: 51.2% · edge: +5.3%
Model probabilities Sorana Cirstea 53.9% · Anna Kalinskaya 46.1% Why Sorana Cirstea is favoured Sorana Cirstea's Elo (1764) is +70 over Anna Kalinskaya (1694); high confidence. Calibration Raw model: 68.4% home · Platt-calibrated down to 53.9% based on historical reliability across this sport's graded matches. +EV vs market home: model 53.9% vs market 51.2% (edge +5.3%, suggested Kelly +2.6% of bankroll).
No-vig implied probabilities from recorded snapshots. Line moving toward one side means the market is re-pricing in that team's favour — compare to the model to see who's ahead.