Single · moneyline
Sharpest call · Marie Bouzkova
To win
+$33.00
Total payout
$53.00
Joint prob
59.3%
Combined odds
2.65
Fair odds
1.69
Edge
+57.2%
Expected value: +$11.45 on a $20 stake.
Expected value: +$11.45 on a $20 stake.
Market: Pinnacle ·
Quarter-Kelly (25%) is the common safe default. Full Kelly is mathematically optimal but volatile.
Model probability: 59.3% · fair market: 36.9% · edge: +60.8%
Model probabilities Marie Bouzkova 59.3% · Iva Jović 40.7% Why Marie Bouzkova is favoured Marie Bouzkova's Elo (1648) is +125 over Iva Jović (1523); low confidence. But — counter-arguments Elo confidence is low (15%) — ratings are based on a thin sample, so the prediction itself is wider than the headline number suggests. Calibration Raw model: 77.1% home · Platt-calibrated down to 59.3% based on historical reliability across this sport's graded matches. +EV vs market home: model 59.3% vs market 36.9% (edge +60.8%, suggested Kelly +25.0% of bankroll). Confidence note Elo data on these teams is thin (15% sample-size confidence); headline number is sharper than the underlying signal — treat it as directional, not absolute.
No-vig implied probabilities from recorded snapshots. Line moving toward one side means the market is re-pricing in that team's favour — compare to the model to see who's ahead.