Single · moneyline
Sharpest call · Titouan Droguet
To win
+$20.20
Total payout
$40.20
Joint prob
65.5%
Combined odds
2.01
Fair odds
1.53
Edge
+31.7%
Expected value: +$6.35 on a $20 stake.
Expected value: +$6.35 on a $20 stake.
Market: Pinnacle ·
Quarter-Kelly (25%) is the common safe default. Full Kelly is mathematically optimal but volatile.
Model probability: 65.5% · fair market: 48.3% · edge: +35.6%
Model probabilities Luca Van Assche 34.5% · Titouan Droguet 65.5% Why Titouan Droguet is favoured Titouan Droguet's Elo (1529) is +56 over Luca Van Assche (1473); high confidence. +EV vs market away: model 65.5% vs market 48.3% (edge +35.6%, suggested Kelly +25.0% of bankroll).
No-vig implied probabilities from recorded snapshots. Line moving toward one side means the market is re-pricing in that team's favour — compare to the model to see who's ahead.