Single · moneyline
Sharpest call · Xinyu Wang
To win
+$153.60
Total payout
$173.60
Joint prob
18.1%
Combined odds
8.68
Fair odds
5.53
Edge
+57.1%
Expected value: +$11.41 on a $20 stake.
Expected value: +$11.41 on a $20 stake.
Market: Pinnacle ·
Quarter-Kelly (25%) is the common safe default. Full Kelly is mathematically optimal but volatile.
Model probability: 18.1% · fair market: 11.1% · edge: +63.5%
Model probabilities Aryna Sabalenka 81.9% · Xinyu Wang 18.1% Why Aryna Sabalenka is favoured Aryna Sabalenka's Elo (2041) is +520 over Xinyu Wang (1520); low confidence. But — counter-arguments Elo confidence is low (15%) — ratings are based on a thin sample, so the prediction itself is wider than the headline number suggests. Calibration Raw model: 96.9% home · Platt-calibrated down to 81.9% based on historical reliability across this sport's graded matches. +EV vs market away: model 18.1% vs market 11.1% (edge +63.5%, suggested Kelly +7.4% of bankroll). Confidence note Elo data on these teams is thin (15% sample-size confidence); headline number is sharper than the underlying signal — treat it as directional, not absolute.
No-vig implied probabilities from recorded snapshots. Line moving toward one side means the market is re-pricing in that team's favour — compare to the model to see who's ahead.