Single · moneyline
Sharpest call · Tamara Korpatsch
To win
+$134.00
Total payout
$154.00
Joint prob
39.7%
Combined odds
7.70
Fair odds
2.52
Edge
+205.5%
Expected value: +$41.10 on a $20 stake.
Expected value: +$41.10 on a $20 stake.
Market: Pinnacle ·
Quarter-Kelly (25%) is the common safe default. Full Kelly is mathematically optimal but volatile.
Model probability: 39.7% · fair market: 12.4% · edge: +220.0%
Model probabilities Tamara Korpatsch 39.7% · Iva Jović 60.3% Why Iva Jović is favoured Tamara Korpatsch's Elo (1518) is +12 over Iva Jović (1506); low confidence. But — counter-arguments Elo confidence is low (10%) — ratings are based on a thin sample, so the prediction itself is wider than the headline number suggests. Calibration Raw model: 53.6% home · Platt-calibrated down to 39.7% based on historical reliability across this sport's graded matches. +EV vs market home: model 39.7% vs market 12.4% (edge +220.0%, suggested Kelly +25.0% of bankroll). Confidence note Elo data on these teams is thin (10% sample-size confidence); headline number is sharper than the underlying signal — treat it as directional, not absolute.