Single · moneyline
Sharpest call · Alex de Minaur
To win
+$16.60
Total payout
$36.60
Joint prob
68.8%
Combined odds
1.83
Fair odds
1.45
Edge
+25.9%
Expected value: +$5.19 on a $20 stake.
Expected value: +$5.19 on a $20 stake.
Market: Pinnacle ·
Quarter-Kelly (25%) is the common safe default. Full Kelly is mathematically optimal but volatile.
Model probability: 68.8% · fair market: 53.2% · edge: +29.4%
Model probabilities Alex de Minaur 68.8% · Andrey Rublev 31.2% Why Alex de Minaur is favoured Alex de Minaur's Elo (1757) is +116 over Andrey Rublev (1641); high confidence. Calibration Raw model: 76.0% home · Platt-calibrated down to 68.8% based on historical reliability across this sport's graded matches. +EV vs market home: model 68.8% vs market 53.2% (edge +29.4%, suggested Kelly +25.0% of bankroll).
No-vig implied probabilities from recorded snapshots. Line moving toward one side means the market is re-pricing in that team's favour — compare to the model to see who's ahead.