Model probabilities Alex Michelsen 10.3% · Carlos Alcaraz 89.7% Why Carlos Alcaraz is favoured Carlos Alcaraz's Elo (2042) is +390 over Alex Michelsen (1652); high confidence. Calibration Raw model: 6.2% home · Platt-calibrated up to 10.3% based on historical reliability across this sport's graded matches.