Single · moneyline
Sharpest call · Oleksandra Oliynykova
To win
+$217.60
Total payout
$237.60
Joint prob
19.0%
Combined odds
11.88
Fair odds
5.26
Edge
+125.9%
Expected value: +$25.19 on a $20 stake.
No material integrity, morale, or squad-news flags found in the last 14 days.
Expected value: +$25.19 on a $20 stake.
Market: Pinnacle ·
Quarter-Kelly (25%) is the common safe default. Full Kelly is mathematically optimal but volatile.
Model probability: 19.0% · fair market: 8.1% · edge: +134.2%
Oleksandra Oliynykova recently achieved her first hard-court WTA 1000 victory in Cincinnati, showcasing strong current form on the surface. This win marks a positive momentum shift for her in the tournament.
Lineup: Expected to start.
Mirra Andreeva recently secured a significant win in the Cincinnati Open, indicating strong current form and active participation in the tournament. This recent victory suggests good momentum heading into her next match.
Lineup: Expected to start.
“Andreeva and Oliynykova enter Cincinnati clash with recent victories.”
Model probabilities Oleksandra Oliynykova 19.0% · Mirra Andreeva 81.0% Why Mirra Andreeva is favoured Mirra Andreeva's Elo (1789) is +275 over Oleksandra Oliynykova (1513); low confidence. But — counter-arguments Elo confidence is low (5%) — ratings are based on a thin sample, so the prediction itself is wider than the headline number suggests. Calibration Raw model: 11.1% home · Platt-calibrated up to 19.0% based on historical reliability across this sport's graded matches. +EV vs market home: model 19.0% vs market 8.1% (edge +134.2%, suggested Kelly +11.6% of bankroll). News context Andreeva and Oliynykova enter Cincinnati clash with recent victories. Oleksandra Oliynykova: Oleksandra Oliynykova recently achieved her first hard-court WTA 1000 victory in Cincinnati, showcasing strong current form on the surface. This win marks a positive momentum shift for her in the tournament. Mirra Andreeva: Mirra Andreeva recently secured a significant win in the Cincinnati Open, indicating strong current form and active participation in the tournament. This recent victory suggests good momentum heading into her next match. Confidence note Elo data on these teams is thin (5% sample-size confidence); headline number is sharper than the underlying signal — treat it as directional, not absolute.
No-vig implied probabilities from recorded snapshots. Line moving toward one side means the market is re-pricing in that team's favour — compare to the model to see who's ahead.