Single · moneyline
Sharpest call · Elena Rybakina
To win
+$7.80
Total payout
$27.80
Joint prob
78.8%
Combined odds
1.39
Fair odds
1.27
Edge
+9.5%
Expected value: +$1.90 on a $20 stake.
Expected value: +$1.90 on a $20 stake.
Market: Pinnacle ·
Quarter-Kelly (25%) is the common safe default. Full Kelly is mathematically optimal but volatile.
Model probability: 78.8% · fair market: 69.8% · edge: +12.8%
Model probabilities Diana Shnaider 21.2% · Elena Rybakina 78.8% Why Elena Rybakina is favoured Elena Rybakina's Elo (1979) is +282 over Diana Shnaider (1696); high confidence. Calibration Raw model: 10.7% home · Platt-calibrated up to 21.2% based on historical reliability across this sport's graded matches. +EV vs market away: model 78.8% vs market 69.8% (edge +12.8%, suggested Kelly +24.3% of bankroll).