Single · moneyline
Sharpest call · Mananchaya Sawangkaew
To win
+$46.40
Total payout
$66.40
Joint prob
31.7%
Combined odds
3.32
Fair odds
3.16
Edge
+5.2%
Expected value: +$1.03 on a $20 stake.
Expected value: +$1.03 on a $20 stake.
Market: Pinnacle ·
Quarter-Kelly (25%) is the common safe default. Full Kelly is mathematically optimal but volatile.
Model probability: 31.7% · fair market: 29.4% · edge: +7.9%
Model probabilities Mananchaya Sawangkaew 31.7% · Leylah Fernandez 68.3% Why Leylah Fernandez is favoured Leylah Fernandez's Elo (1640) is +103 over Mananchaya Sawangkaew (1537); high confidence. Calibration Raw model: 25.9% home · Platt-calibrated up to 31.7% based on historical reliability across this sport's graded matches. +EV vs market home: model 31.7% vs market 29.4% (edge +7.9%, suggested Kelly +2.2% of bankroll).
No-vig implied probabilities from recorded snapshots. Line moving toward one side means the market is re-pricing in that team's favour — compare to the model to see who's ahead.