Single · moneyline
Sharpest call · Arthur Fery
To win
+$65.40
Total payout
$85.40
Joint prob
25.6%
Combined odds
4.27
Fair odds
3.91
Edge
+9.1%
Expected value: +$1.83 on a $20 stake.
Expected value: +$1.83 on a $20 stake.
Market: Pinnacle ·
Quarter-Kelly (25%) is the common safe default. Full Kelly is mathematically optimal but volatile.
Model probability: 25.6% · fair market: 22.8% · edge: +12.2%
Model probabilities Arthur Fery 25.6% · Lorenzo Musetti 74.4% Why Lorenzo Musetti is favoured Lorenzo Musetti's Elo (1715) is +196 over Arthur Fery (1519); high confidence. Calibration Raw model: 16.2% home · Platt-calibrated up to 25.6% based on historical reliability across this sport's graded matches. +EV vs market home: model 25.6% vs market 22.8% (edge +12.2%, suggested Kelly +2.8% of bankroll).
No-vig implied probabilities from recorded snapshots. Line moving toward one side means the market is re-pricing in that team's favour — compare to the model to see who's ahead.