Single · moneyline
Sharpest call · Talia Gibson
To win
+$26.40
Total payout
$46.40
Joint prob
52.5%
Combined odds
2.32
Fair odds
1.91
Edge
+21.7%
Expected value: +$4.35 on a $20 stake.
Expected value: +$4.35 on a $20 stake.
Market: Pinnacle ·
Quarter-Kelly (25%) is the common safe default. Full Kelly is mathematically optimal but volatile.
Model probability: 52.5% · fair market: 41.9% · edge: +25.4%
Model probabilities Talia Gibson 52.5% · Elisabetta Cocciaretto 47.5% Why Talia Gibson is favoured Elo essentially level (1576 vs 1567) — winner depends on context. +EV vs market home: model 52.5% vs market 41.9% (edge +25.4%, suggested Kelly +16.5% of bankroll).
No-vig implied probabilities from recorded snapshots. Line moving toward one side means the market is re-pricing in that team's favour — compare to the model to see who's ahead.