Single · moneyline
Sharpest call · Leylah Fernandez
To win
+$45.40
Total payout
$65.40
Joint prob
31.7%
Combined odds
3.27
Fair odds
3.15
Edge
+3.8%
Expected value: +$0.76 on a $20 stake.
No material integrity, morale, or squad-news flags found in the last 14 days.
Expected value: +$0.76 on a $20 stake.
Market: Pinnacle ·
Quarter-Kelly (25%) is the common safe default. Full Kelly is mathematically optimal but volatile.
Model probability: 31.7% · fair market: 29.8% · edge: +6.4%
Model probabilities Leylah Fernandez 31.7% · Naomi Osaka 68.3% Why Naomi Osaka is favoured Naomi Osaka's Elo (1745) is +69 over Leylah Fernandez (1676); high confidence. +EV vs market home: model 31.7% vs market 29.8% (edge +6.4%, suggested Kelly +1.7% of bankroll).
No-vig implied probabilities from recorded snapshots. Line moving toward one side means the market is re-pricing in that team's favour — compare to the model to see who's ahead.