Single · moneyline
Sharpest call · Jaume Munar
To win
+$10.40
Total payout
$30.40
Joint prob
67.7%
Combined odds
1.52
Fair odds
1.48
Edge
+2.9%
Expected value: +$0.58 on a $20 stake.
Expected value: +$0.58 on a $20 stake.
Market: Pinnacle ·
Quarter-Kelly (25%) is the common safe default. Full Kelly is mathematically optimal but volatile.
Model probability: 67.7% · fair market: 63.8% · edge: +6.1%
Model probabilities Jaume Munar 67.7% · Jenson Brooksby 32.3% Why Jaume Munar is favoured Jaume Munar's Elo (1631) is +88 over Jenson Brooksby (1543); high confidence. Calibration Raw model: 71.8% home · Platt-calibrated down to 67.7% based on historical reliability across this sport's graded matches. +EV vs market home: model 67.7% vs market 63.8% (edge +6.1%, suggested Kelly +5.5% of bankroll).
No-vig implied probabilities from recorded snapshots. Line moving toward one side means the market is re-pricing in that team's favour — compare to the model to see who's ahead.