Single · moneyline
Sharpest call · Anna Bondár
To win
+$120.20
Total payout
$140.20
Joint prob
30.2%
Combined odds
7.01
Fair odds
3.31
Edge
+111.8%
Expected value: +$22.37 on a $20 stake.
Expected value: +$22.37 on a $20 stake.
Market: Pinnacle ·
Quarter-Kelly (25%) is the common safe default. Full Kelly is mathematically optimal but volatile.
Model probability: 30.2% · fair market: 13.8% · edge: +119.4%
Model probabilities Madison Keys 69.8% · Anna Bondár 30.2% Why Madison Keys is favoured Madison Keys's Elo (1788) is +282 over Anna Bondár (1506); low confidence. But — counter-arguments Elo confidence is low (10%) — ratings are based on a thin sample, so the prediction itself is wider than the headline number suggests. Calibration Raw model: 89.3% home · Platt-calibrated down to 69.8% based on historical reliability across this sport's graded matches. +EV vs market away: model 30.2% vs market 13.6% (edge +122.0%, suggested Kelly +18.8% of bankroll). Confidence note Elo data on these teams is thin (10% sample-size confidence); headline number is sharper than the underlying signal — treat it as directional, not absolute.
No-vig implied probabilities from recorded snapshots. Line moving toward one side means the market is re-pricing in that team's favour — compare to the model to see who's ahead.