Single · moneyline
Sharpest call · Henrique Rocha
To win
+$35.80
Total payout
$55.80
Joint prob
60.5%
Combined odds
2.79
Fair odds
1.65
Edge
+68.9%
Expected value: +$13.78 on a $20 stake.
Expected value: +$13.78 on a $20 stake.
Market: Pinnacle ·
Quarter-Kelly (25%) is the common safe default. Full Kelly is mathematically optimal but volatile.
Model probability: 60.5% · fair market: 34.4% · edge: +76.2%
Marcos Giron, currently ranked ATP No. 81, brings significant tour-level experience to the Cincinnati Open, where he has historically struggled to advance past the early rounds. His recent form is mixed, including a three-set loss in his last outing in Montreal.
Lineup: Expected to play.
Henrique Rocha, ranked ATP No. 125, is an aspiring young player who has been steadily climbing the rankings but is still working to consistently perform against established ATP competitors. He enters the Cincinnati Open on a six-match losing streak across different surfaces.
Lineup: Expected to play.
“Marcos Giron and Henrique Rocha are set to compete in the ATP Cincinnati Open, with Giron aiming to improve on past tournament performances and Rocha looking to end a recent string of losses.”
Model probabilities Marcos Giron 39.5% · Henrique Rocha 60.5% Why Henrique Rocha is favoured Elo essentially level (1534 vs 1529) — winner depends on context. Calibration Raw model: 53.1% home · Platt-calibrated down to 39.5% based on historical reliability across this sport's graded matches. +EV vs market away: model 60.5% vs market 34.4% (edge +76.2%, suggested Kelly +25.0% of bankroll). News context Marcos Giron and Henrique Rocha are set to compete in the ATP Cincinnati Open, with Giron aiming to improve on past tournament performances and Rocha looking to end a recent string of losses. Marcos Giron: Marcos Giron, currently ranked ATP No. 81, brings significant tour-level experience to the Cincinnati Open, where he has historically struggled to advance past the early rounds. His recent form is mixed, including a three-set loss in his last outing in Montreal. Henrique Rocha: Henrique Rocha, ranked ATP No. 125, is an aspiring young player who has been steadily climbing the rankings but is still working to consistently perform against established ATP competitors. He enters the Cincinnati Open on a six-match losing streak across different surfaces.
No-vig implied probabilities from recorded snapshots. Line moving toward one side means the market is re-pricing in that team's favour — compare to the model to see who's ahead.