Single · moneyline
Sharpest call · Elise Mertens
To win
+$36.80
Total payout
$56.80
Joint prob
34.7%
Combined odds
2.84
Fair odds
2.89
Edge
-1.6%
Expected value: $-0.31 on a $20 stake.
Expected value: $-0.31 on a $20 stake.
Market: Betfair ·
Quarter-Kelly (25%) is the common safe default. Full Kelly is mathematically optimal but volatile.
Model probability: 34.7% · fair market: 33.2% · edge: +4.5%
Model probabilities Elise Mertens 34.7% · Naomi Osaka 65.3% Why Naomi Osaka is favoured Naomi Osaka's Elo (1732) is +56 over Elise Mertens (1676); high confidence. +EV vs market home: model 34.7% vs market 33.2% (edge +4.5%, suggested Kelly +0.0% of bankroll).
No-vig implied probabilities from recorded snapshots. Line moving toward one side means the market is re-pricing in that team's favour — compare to the model to see who's ahead.