Market: Pinnacle ·
Quarter-Kelly (25%) is the common safe default. Full Kelly is mathematically optimal but volatile.
Model probability: 47.6% · fair market: 48.2% · edge: -1.2%
Model probabilities Kei Nishikori 47.6% · Francisco Comesana 52.4% Why Francisco Comesana is favoured Kei Nishikori's Elo (1562) is +77 over Francisco Comesana (1485); high confidence. Calibration Raw model: 69.9% home · Platt-calibrated down to 47.6% based on historical reliability across this sport's graded matches. Market check No +EV edge — book has the price right at these odds.
No-vig implied probabilities from recorded snapshots. Line moving toward one side means the market is re-pricing in that team's favour — compare to the model to see who's ahead.