Single · moneyline
Sharpest call · Martin Landaluce
To win
+$23.20
Total payout
$43.20
Joint prob
49.3%
Combined odds
2.16
Fair odds
2.03
Edge
+6.5%
Expected value: +$1.29 on a $20 stake.
Expected value: +$1.29 on a $20 stake.
Market: Pinnacle ·
Quarter-Kelly (25%) is the common safe default. Full Kelly is mathematically optimal but volatile.
Model probability: 49.3% · fair market: 45.0% · edge: +9.4%
Model probabilities Thiago Agustin Tirante 50.7% · Martin Landaluce 49.3% Why Thiago Agustin Tirante is favoured Thiago Agustin Tirante's Elo (1595) is +45 over Martin Landaluce (1550); high confidence. Calibration Raw model: 62.8% home · Platt-calibrated down to 50.7% based on historical reliability across this sport's graded matches. +EV vs market away: model 49.3% vs market 45.0% (edge +9.4%, suggested Kelly +5.6% of bankroll).
No-vig implied probabilities from recorded snapshots. Line moving toward one side means the market is re-pricing in that team's favour — compare to the model to see who's ahead.