Single · moneyline
Sharpest call · Toby Samuel
To win
+$48.20
Total payout
$68.20
Joint prob
34.2%
Combined odds
3.41
Fair odds
2.92
Edge
+16.7%
Expected value: +$3.35 on a $20 stake.
Expected value: +$3.35 on a $20 stake.
Market: Pinnacle ·
Quarter-Kelly (25%) is the common safe default. Full Kelly is mathematically optimal but volatile.
Model probability: 34.2% · fair market: 28.7% · edge: +19.4%
Model probabilities Jiri Lehecka 65.8% · Toby Samuel 34.2% Calibration Raw model: 85.2% home · Platt-calibrated down to 65.8% based on historical reliability across this sport's graded matches. +EV vs market away: model 34.2% vs market 28.7% (edge +19.4%, suggested Kelly +6.9% of bankroll).