Single · moneyline
Sharpest call · Magdalena Frech
To win
+$53.60
Total payout
$73.60
Joint prob
60.5%
Combined odds
3.68
Fair odds
1.65
Edge
+122.7%
Expected value: +$24.54 on a $20 stake.
Expected value: +$24.54 on a $20 stake.
Market: Pinnacle ·
Quarter-Kelly (25%) is the common safe default. Full Kelly is mathematically optimal but volatile.
Model probability: 60.5% · fair market: 26.4% · edge: +129.2%
Model probabilities Iva Jović 39.5% · Magdalena Frech 60.5% Why Magdalena Frech is favoured Magdalena Frech's Elo (1554) is +32 over Iva Jović (1523); low confidence. But — counter-arguments Elo confidence is low (15%) — ratings are based on a thin sample, so the prediction itself is wider than the headline number suggests. Calibration Raw model: 40.7% home · Platt-calibrated down to 39.5% based on historical reliability across this sport's graded matches. +EV vs market away: model 60.5% vs market 26.4% (edge +129.2%, suggested Kelly +25.0% of bankroll). Confidence note Elo data on these teams is thin (15% sample-size confidence); headline number is sharper than the underlying signal — treat it as directional, not absolute.