Single · moneyline
Sharpest call · Jan Choinski
To win
+$64.00
Total payout
$84.00
Joint prob
27.0%
Combined odds
4.20
Fair odds
3.71
Edge
+13.2%
Expected value: +$2.65 on a $20 stake.
Expected value: +$2.65 on a $20 stake.
Market: Pinnacle ·
Quarter-Kelly (25%) is the common safe default. Full Kelly is mathematically optimal but volatile.
Model probability: 27.0% · fair market: 23.1% · edge: +16.8%
Model probabilities Jan Choinski 27.0% · Botic van de Zandschulp 73.0% Why Botic van de Zandschulp is favoured Botic van de Zandschulp's Elo (1618) is +171 over Jan Choinski (1447); high confidence. Calibration Raw model: 18.3% home · Platt-calibrated up to 27.0% based on historical reliability across this sport's graded matches. +EV vs market home: model 27.0% vs market 23.1% (edge +16.8%, suggested Kelly +4.1% of bankroll).
No-vig implied probabilities from recorded snapshots. Line moving toward one side means the market is re-pricing in that team's favour — compare to the model to see who's ahead.